The smell of football is heavy on the air, as the 2024 NFL season kicks off this Thursday evening. ESPN has used the buzzing anticipation as an opportunity to offer a slew of predictions ahead of the new campaign, with analyst Mike Clay penning an article in which he ranks each club and predicts which teams will have the strongest offenses and defenses.
Despite a recent run of success that has seen the team rattle off four straight AFC East crowns, Clay isn’t all that confident in the Buffalo Bills as they enter the new season; the writer has slotted the team in at No. 14 on his power rankings, predicting that it will fail to qualify for the postseason.
“This roster is shakier than in years past after the departures of Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre'Davious White and others. (Linebacker Matt Milano is also out indefinitely with a torn biceps.),” Clay wrote. “Of course, coach Sean McDermott has done more with less before, and Josh Allen is still the quarterback, so the Bills remain a threat.”
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The writer expects the Bills to finish third in the AFC East, behind the New York Jets (who come in at No. 3 on his power rankings) and the Miami Dolphins (No. 8). He predicts the Jets to triumph over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIX.
Clay’s Buffalo analysis isn’t too substantive, which can perhaps be forgiven, as he’s attempted to preview and predict a five-month season in a single article—some thoughts are obviously going to be left on the cutting room floor. That said, the Bills have qualified for the postseason in six of the last seven years and have a quarterback who is unequivocally one of the league’s best in Josh Allen; for the extent of the analysis to essentially be ‘they lost a lot of pieces but may still be good’ while still projecting them to miss the playoffs seems strange.
The article does link to Clay’s in-depth statistical projections for each NFL team in the upcoming season, which only raises more questions regarding his thoughts on the Bills. The writer projects Allen to complete 66% of his passes for 3,753 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions; this seems like an egregiously low projection for a quarterback who hasn’t passed for fewer than 4,280 yards since 2019. In fact, Clay’s projection has Allen throwing for 553 fewer yards this season than he did last; his receiving corps did lose a number of pieces in the offseason, but were Buffalo’s supplementary moves that lackluster to prompt a significant drop in production?
Clay doesn’t necessarily expect Allen to pick up the slack on the ground, as his 496 projected rushing yards would be the passer’s lowest rushing total since 2020. He also sees James Cook taking a step back as both a rusher and receiver and doesn’t foresee Buffalo having a 1,000-yard receiver; he seemingly doesn’t have a lot of faith in the Bills’ revamped offense.
The analyst also expects regression from interior pass-rusher Ed Oliver on the defensive side of the ball and doesn’t see middle linebacker Terrel Bernard being the impact player he was a season ago. He also expects Nicholas Morrow to start alongside Bernard in place of the injured Matt Milano, which doesn’t appear to be the case whatsoever, as all signs indicate that sophom*ore Dorian Williams will start in the former All-Pro’s absence.
This oversight is perhaps a fitting microcosm of the entire preview, as few aspects of this prediction seem to be based in reality. It’s certainly possible that Buffalo is usurped by New York and Miami in the division and, thus, fails to qualify for the postseason, but we’ve seen nothing in recent years (or throughout the summer) to indicate that Allen is going to self-destruct and post his worst production since 2019. Clay projects regression across nearly the entire roster, and while that’s, again, a possible outcome, it reads more like a doomist reaction that anticipates that the worst-case scenario will manifest at every turn.
We fortunately do not have to think about hypothetical outcomes for much longer, as the Bills kick off their 2024 campaign with a clash against the Arizona Cardinals on September 8.
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